Obamanomics in action: Private sector pay at all-time low, welfare handouts at all-time high

"This what change looks like." - Barack Obama

From USA Today, as reported on Ben Hart's "Escape Tyranny." Click here for the full story.

America's slide to a welfare state has been put on greased skids under the Obama administration. Income from the private sector has nosedived to an all-time historical low, while "income" from government welfare benefits has exploded to an all-time historical high under Obama.

And liberals are tickled about it. "It's the system working as it should," crows liberal economist Paul van der Water.

Paychecks from private business shrank to their smallest share of personal income in U.S. history during the first quarter of this year, a USA TODAY analysis of government data finds.

At the same time, government-provided benefits — from Social Security, unemployment insurance, food stamps and other programs — rose to a record high during the first three months of 2010.

Those records reflect a long-term trend accelerated by the recession and the federal stimulus program to counteract the downturn. The result is a major shift in the source of personal income from private wages to government programs.

The trend is not sustainable, says University of Michigan economist Donald Grimes...

...The shift in incomeshows that the federal government's stimulus efforts have been effective, says Paul Van de Water, an economist at the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

"It's the system working as it should," Van de Water says. Government is stimulating growth and helping people in need, he says. As the economy recovers, private wages will rebound, he says.

Economist Veronique de Rugy of the free-market Mercatus Center at George Mason University says the riots in Greece over cutting benefits to close a huge budget deficit are a warning about unsustainable income programs.

Economist David Henderson of the conservative Hoover Institution says a shift from private wages to government benefits saps the economy of dynamism. "People are paid for being rather than for producing," he says.

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Obama blasts lack of controls on Internet, much like...

Barack Obama lashed out at citizen journalism in a college commencement address Sunday, in comments that sounded strangely familiar. From this morning's AFP wire story:

US President Barack Obama lamented Sunday that in the iPad and Xbox era, information had become a diversion that was imposing new strains on democracy, in his latest critique of modern media...

..."You're coming of age in a 24/7 media environment that bombards us with all kinds of content and exposes us to all kinds of arguments, some of which don't always rank all that high on the truth meter," Obama said at Hampton University, Virginia...

...He bemoaned the fact that "some of the craziest claims can quickly claim traction," in the clamor of certain blogs and talk radio outlets.

"All of this is not only putting new pressures on you, it is putting new pressures on our country and on our democracy."

Sound familiar? From Reuters, Mar. 14:

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, who is criticized by media freedom groups, called on Saturday for regulation of the Internet and singled out a website that he said falsely reported the murder of one of his ministers.

"The Internet cannot be something open where anything is said and done. Every country has to apply its own rules and norms," Chavez said...

...Social networking web sites like Twitter and Facebook are very popular among Venezuela's opposition movements to organize protests against the government. Chavez has complained that people use such sites to spread unfounded rumors...

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Will the media breathlessly report on this gender gap?

I would think not.

Radio host Michael Graham, writing in today's Wall Street Journal. Click here for the full column:

If Momma ain't happy, ain't nobody happy. And if you've been to a tea party, you know Momma ain't happy at all.

Forget "angry white men." In the male-dominated world of conservative politics, the tea party stands out as a movement of energized and organized women. In particular, moms...

...a recent Quinnipiac poll of voters found a majority of tea party supporters—55%—are women. To put that in perspective, only 48% of women voted for George W. Bush in 2004. And just two years ago, President Obama won 56% of the female vote...

...When I asked Christen Varley, the Boston tea party leader, she said it's because moms tend to be "the CEO's of our households. We do the shopping, bill paying, budgeting, etc. We know less money means less freedom. Maybe if the president and Congress did the grocery shopping, they'd know why we're mad."

Dana Loesch, talk host and co-founder of the St. Louis tea party, believes the tea party movement is the modern conservative version of "the personal is political."

"Motherhood itself has become a political act," says Ms. Loesch. "And the tea parties are an extension of our need as moms to protect the future for our children."

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Congress loans Greece $6.8 billion...borrowed from China

From Senator Jim DeMint, run by The Daily Caller. Click here to read the full column.

Congress didn’t learn their lesson after the $700 billion failed bank bailout and let world leaders shake down U.S taxpayers for international bailout money at the G-20 conference in April 2009. G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors asked the United States, the IMF’s largest contributor, for a whopping $108 billion to rescue bankers around the world and the Obama Administration quickly obliged.

Rather than pass it as stand-alone legislation, President Obama asked Congress to fold the $108 billion into a war-spending bill to send money to our troops...

...Right now, 17 percent of the IMF funding pool that the $40 billion bailout is being drawn from comes from U.S. taxpayers. If that ratio holds true, that means American taxpayers are paying for $6.8 billion of the Greek bailout. Although the $108 billion extra that Congress approved for the IMF in 2009 hasn’t yet gone into effect, you can bet that once it does Greek bankers will come to the IMF again with their hat in hand. And, if other European Union countries see free money up for grabs they could ask the IMF for bailouts when they get into trouble, too. If we’ve learned anything from the Wall Street bailouts it’s that just one bailout is never enough.

To hide the bailout from Americans already angry with the $700 billion bank bailout, Congress classified it as an “expanded credit line.” The Congressional Budget Office only scored it as $5 billion because IMF agreed to give the United States a promissory note for the rest of the bill...

...Of course, money isn’t free and there are member nations of the IMF that won’t be in a hurry to pay it back. Three state sponsors of terrorism, Iran, Syria and Sudan, are a part of the IMF. Iran participates in the IMF’s day-to-day activities as a member of its executive board.

If the failed bank bailout and stimulus bill wasn’t enough to prove to Americans the kind of misguided, destructive spending that goes on in Washington this will: The Democrat Congress, aided by a few Republicans, used a war spending bill to send bailout money to an international fund that’s partially-controlled by our enemies.

Greece collapsed because it pursued a massive welfare entitlement system funded by runaway spending on lavish private and public employee benefits and a government-directed health care system -- all policies pursued by Democrats.

So who will bail us out when Democrats cause our collapse?

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Letter to the editor - Leesburg Today

In his Apr. 19 response to local resident Debora Lavin attacking programs aimed at helping the incarcerated, local activist Jonathan Weintraub inaccurately characterizes a lawsuit brought against the state of Iowa by an activist group that hopes to outlaw public expressions of religious faith.

Weintraub’s creative wording and only partial retelling of the case seems intended to mislead the reader. The material he apparently drew his information from never uses “prosecuted” to describe a routine First Amendment challenge. Having successfully sued one government body and currently suing another on First Amendment grounds, I have never used the term “prosecuted” to describe such suits as it would mislead newspaper readers.

And while Weintraub made sure to quote the initial 2006 U.S. District Court injunction he never mentioned the appeals court ruling just months later tossing it out and allowing the program to operate. That decision was made by former United States Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor and two respected appellate judges, Judges Roger L. Wollman and Duane Benton.

While Weintraub attempts to paint a lavish fictionalized portrait of a vengeful federal prosecutor striking down those Weintraub disagrees with in a scene out of a Hollywood movie, the reality is the highly-regarded program was in fact upheld by a former Supreme Court justice and two respected federal judges, and PFM still provides much-needed assistance to Iowa’s prison inmates.

For yet another week, Weintraub’s colorful conspiracy theories and attacks on those different than he prove to be more subterfuge than substance.

Donny Ferguson
Alexandria

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Today in History: Legislators demand more pi

On this day (May 5) in 1897, the Indiana House of Representatives passed a bill by Democrat State Rep. Taylor I. Record changing pi to 3.2. Indiana schools could use pi for free, but anyone else using pi in a math equation could have to pay royalties to Dr. Edwin Goodwin, a Taylor constituent who developed it.

The bill was headed to passage in the Senate when a mathematics professor who happened to be in the Capitol was shown the bill by a proud legislator. After coaching state senators on the idiocy of what they were doing, it was tabled and never passed.

(HT to Lawrence Reed)

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Sweet poll-ey goodness

* 60 percent say ObamaCare increases deficit, 58 percent back repeal

"The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 58% of likely voters nationwide favor repeal, while 38% are opposed...

...Sixty percent (60%) of voters nationwide believe the new law will increase the federal budget deficit, while just 19% say it will reduce the deficit. Fifty-seven percent (57%) think the law will increase the cost of health care, while 18% believe it will reduce costs. Fifty-one percent (51%) expect the quality of care to decline, while 24% predict it will get better...

...Overall, 39 percent of voters nationwide believe the health care law will be good for the country, while 52 percent believe it will be bad...68 percent of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties (believe ObamaCare will increase deficits.)

* North Dakota House: Berg (R) 49%, Pomeroy (D) 45%

"A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in North Dakota finds Republican Rick Berg with 49% support, while incumbent Congressman Earl Pomeroy earns 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided. This is the third straight month that Berg has enjoyed a modest advantage over the long-term incumbent...

...Opposition to the health care plan in North Dakota remains high and, as in many states, helps the Republican. Thirty-five percent (35%) of North Dakota voters think the bill is good for the country, but 53% say it will be bad. Fifty-nine percent (59%) favor repeal of the measure, while 36% oppose repeal. These figures include 46% in the state who strongly favor repeal versus 28% who strongly oppose it."

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Stephen Hawking is an idiot.

From the Apr. 25 Sunday Times:

Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

The aliens are out there and Earth had better watch out, at least according to Stephen Hawking. He has suggested that extraterrestrials are almost certain to exist — but that instead of seeking them out, humanity should be doing all it that can to avoid any contact...

...Such scenes are speculative, but Hawking uses them to lead on to a serious point: that a few life forms could be intelligent and pose a threat. Hawking believes that contact with such a species could be devastating for humanity.

He suggests that aliens might simply raid Earth for its resources and then move on: “We only have to look at ourselves to see how intelligent life might develop into something we wouldn’t want to meet. I imagine they might exist in massive ships, having used up all the resources from their home planet. Such advanced aliens would perhaps become nomads, looking to conquer and colonise whatever planets they can reach.”

Sir Hawking is dead wrong.

Any race advanced enough to master intergalatic light speed travel or travel through wormholes, has the technology to create energy without consuming massive resources. Heck, even our comparatively primitive civilization will never completely consume all of Earth's resources.

Man develops technology as he finds ways to conserve his resources, not consume more of them. Burning peat moss for heat and light gave way to whale oil and coal because they provided more energy with less mass. Whale oil gave gave way to petrochemicals, which wasw more plentiful and provided more energy with less mass. As technology advances, nuclear power is replacing petrochemicals because they provide more energy with less mass.

An alien race roaming the unconceivably expansive universe finding planets to completely strip of all resources, when it would be technologically easier to find ways to create energy and needed resources out of common matter, or to simply reconstitute spent resources? That's just silly.

And any alien civilization advanced enough to master the technology necessary for intergalatic travel would easily be advanced far beyond using premptive violence. Again, even we are almost to that point.

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Grayson nabs 'Ted Kaczynski Award' for green bomb-throwing

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Contact: Donny Ferguson, 703-200-3669 or donny.f@westerntradition.org

GRAYSON NABS ‘TED KACZYNSKI AWARD’ FOR GREEN BOMB-THROWING
Angry radical congressman recognized for fighting to defeat human progress

WASHINGTON -- Kicking off an annual Earth Day tradition, Western Tradition Partnership (WTP) announced Thursday Florida Congressman Alan Grayson is the first-ever winner of the “Ted Kaczynski Award.” The award will be given annually to a member of Congress who excels in hurling rhetorical bombs in the name of turning back the clock on human progress.

“When it comes to hurling bombs at those who believe in human progress, no one does it like lone nut Alan Grayson” said Donny Ferguson, WTP National Director of Media and Public Relations. “Whether it’s voting to destroy 127,775 Florida jobs or increasing the average Orlando-area family’s utility bills by $1,607.16 with a National Energy Tax, Alan Grayson is obsessed with turning back the clock on jobs and prosperity.”

“In Alan Grayson’s America, we’d all live in tiny primitive cabins without electricity, plumbing or jobs.”

While Grayson’s hostile, unstable rhetorical bomb-throwing launched him to the top of the nominees’ list, his 100 percent rating from a radical group calling itself “The League of Conservation Voters” clinched it.

LCV founder David Brower openly boasted of his prowess in destroying jobs, comparing timber workers to guards at Nazi death camps. Brower also declared human reproduction a threat to the planet and suggested it be allowed only to select people with proper government permits. According to Brower, LCV’s mission is to be among the most radical of extremist anti-capitalist groups.

“It says something about your commitment to radicalism when you get the highest-possible rating from a group obsessed with reducing the number of jobs in Florida,” said Ferguson. “Anti-progress activists are just ‘nuts’ about Alan Grayson.”

WTP, on the other hand, is committed to protecting jobs, property rights, energy development and human progress through the peaceful means of educating citizens and legislators.

Supported by grassroots members, WTP is a fast-growing, grassroots-supported non-profit organization advocating rational, responsible natural resource development and land use policy.  For more information, go to http://www.westerntradition.org.  For more information on this issue, or to schedule an interview, contact Donny Ferguson at 703-200-3669 or at donny.f@westerntradition.org.

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http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Forty years later, Earth Day alarmism falls on deaf ears

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Contact: Donny Ferguson, 703-200-3669, donny.f@westerntradition.org

Forty years later, Earth Day alarmism falls on deaf ears
Opposition to the environmentalist agenda growing stronger

WASHINGTON -- Despite an all-out attempt by the environmentalist lobby and mainstream media to blame Americans for supposed man-made climate change new polling finds rational thought and scientific literacy are winning out on the fortieth anniversary of Earth Day, a grassroots advocate of property rights and economic progress warns officials Thursday.

“The ‘man-made global warming’ hoax is going the way of bloodletting and witch burning,” said Donny Ferguson, Western Tradition Partnership’s National Director of Media and Public Relations. “Americans know environmentalism is nothing more than discredited socialism hiding behind a mask of junk science.”

Rasmussen Reports polling released this week finds belief in so-called “man-made global warming” and support for the environmentalist agenda at all-time lows. The polls were conducted independently by Rasmussen and were not conducted or paid for by any group or individual.

A Rasmussen poll released Tuesday finds only 16 percent of adults say national leaders should focus on stopping global warming instead of creating jobs. A whopping 72 percent of adults say creating jobs is the bigger priority.

“This should be a warning to any public official considering voting for carbon taxes, land grabs or other environmentalist schemes. The American people are on to you. They know advocating capitalism and protecting private property are best for the Earth and humans,” said Ferguson.

The poll also found 59 percent of Americans are aware there is significant scientific disagreement with the politically-motivated theory of “man-made global warming.” Only 25 percent think scientists agree on the issue. Sixty-five percent of adults who consider themselves politically independent say there is no scientific consensus in favor of supposed “man-made global warming.”

Another Rasmussen poll released Monday finds the number of voters who consider global warming a serious problem has dropped eight percent from a year ago.

Rasmussen finds “43 percent now say global warming is not serious…the number who say global warming is not serious at all is at its highest level measured in regular tracking in over a year. The overall number of voters who question the seriousness of global warming crossed into the 40s for the first time in January. Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters say global warming is caused by long-term planetary trends, while only 33% blame human activity.”

The poll found 48 percent of voters say any climate change is the result of natural planetary trends, a statement backed up by billions of years of scientific data. Only 33 percent think human activity like lightbulb use can cause long-term, global-scale climate change.

“Belief that human activity is the primary cause of global warming has declined significantly. In April 2008, the numbers were nearly the mirror image of the current findings. At that time, 47% blamed human activity, while only 34% named long-term planetary trends as the reason for climate change,” Rasmussen reported Monday.

“Americans oppose the radical environmentalist agenda, and they want their public officials to agree with them,” said Ferguson.

WTP is a fast-growing, grassroots-supported non-profit organization advocating rational, responsible natural resource development and land use policy. For more information, go to http://www.westerntradition.org. For more information on this issue, or to schedule an interview, contact Donny Ferguson at 703-200-3669 or at donny.f@westerntradition.org.

# # #

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Chicken Little Speaks at Press Conference about Michael Mann video spoof

Video Spoofing Michael Mann Removed by YouTube – Bogus Reason Given

Video Spoofing Michael Mann Removed by YouTube – Bogus Reason Given

St. Paul — At a Washington DC press conference yesterday, the No Cap and Trade Coalition announced a new video spoofing prominent ‘climategate’ scientist, Dr. Michael Mann and his infamous ‘hockey stick chart’ showing rapidly increasing global temperatures in recent decades. The video was posted on YouTube until Wednesday afternoon, when the Google-owned video site removed the video, citing non-existent copyright claims by Jib Jab as the reason. The video was produced in response to a cease and desist demand from Michael Mann’s attorney over an older video produced by Minnesotans for Global Warming. The original Hide the Decline video they created used some Jib Jab-provided animation, under their general license and with their expressed written consent, but the new video, recently removed by YouTube contains no such content.

Spokesman for the No Cap and Trade Coalition, Jeff Davis said, “It looks like Dr. Mann has gone into overdrive trying to hide ‘Hide the Decline,’ since the new video was launched and began to spread like wildfire across the internet.” In the span of less than a day, the video had been linked on over 1,000 websites, including News Busters, Junk Science, and the American Spectator. It was going viral fast and the press was calling when YouTube pulled the plug.

According to the No Cap and Trade Coalition, Jib Jab has no rightful claims on the new video, titled ‘Hide the Decline II.’

“They have no basis for this copyright claim. It’s outrageous that they would claim ownership of content we produced, if that’s indeed what’s happened, as YouTube claims in the removal notice,” said Davis.

Although YouTube has decided to stifle the popular new satirical video, it’s still available through other venues and can be viewed at NoCapAndTrade.com.

##

Minnesotans for Global Warming (M4GW) uses humor to illustrate the absurdity of anthropogenic global warming fears. Their slogans are “Turn your snow shovels into lawn chairs,” and “Nothing would be green without CO2.” - M4GW.com

The No Cap and Trade Coalition consists of over 40 state and national organizations that are opposed to cap and trade legislation. For more information, see NoCapAndTrade.com

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Klein backpedals on 'sedition.' Or was it a flip-flop?

From Andy Barr's article in the Apr. 19 Politico

Rebutting attacks from conservative critics, Time columnist Joe Klein on Monday said he stands his assertion that Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin are coming close to being “seditious” in their attacks on President Barack Obama...

...“Let me be clear: dissent isn't sedition. Questioning an Administration's policies isn't sedition. But questioning an Administration's legitimacy in a manner intended to undermine or overthrow it certainly is.”

Follow up question for Joe. If "questioning an Administration's legitimacy in a manner intended to undermine or overthrow it" is "sedition," will you help arrest all the Democrats who claimed George W. Bush didn't really win the 2000 election?

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Obama 'stimulus' cash pipeline hooked up to party label, not unemployment figures

Sold as a program to keep the nation's unemployment rate under eight percent (now at 9.7 percent,) the Obama administration's awarding of stimulus funds does not follow unemployment rates or even variations in unemployment rates.

It does, however, follow the party of the congressman who is up for election in November.

Veronique de Rugy, senior research fellow at George Mason University's Mercatus Center, analyzing data from Recovery.org, finds Obama's "stimulus" program pours an average of 180 percent more funding into congressional districts held by Democrats than it does into districts held by Republicans.

De Rugy, finding the supposed unemployment funds do not correlate to unemployment figures, writes:

We should expect the government to invest relatively more money in the states that have the highest unemployment rates and less money in the states with lower unemployment rates....

Yet, with a few exceptions, the data show that this is not the case. Many higher-unemployment states are getting far fewer stimulus dollars than lower-unemployment states.

Take Michigan, for instance. Michigan’s 15.2 percent unemployment rate is the highest in the country. So far, it has received $403 per person in stimulus funds. That’s above the average stimulus per person across all states ($326). However, it’s lower than the $409 per person that the state of Vermont, a state with relatively low unemployment (6.8 percent), has received so far. Michigan's per-person take is also much lower than the $707 per person the District of Columbia received. D.C.'s unemployment rate is 9.9 percent.

Now look at the state with the lowest unemployment rate in the country: North Dakota. It’s getting $253 per person with a 4.3 percent unemployment rate. Many other states are receiving roughly the same amount of stimulus funds per person despite much higher rates of unemployment.

It's starting to look like Obama's "stimulus" program is nothing more than another plan to purchase a Democrat-controlled Congress using funds borrowed from future taxpayers, much like the bailout of the United Auto Workers, the Cornhusker Kickback of Sen. Ben Nelson and the Louisiana Purchase of Sen. Mary Landrieu.

Rather than provide jobs for Americans who need them, Obama appears to be in the business of buying jobs for Democrat politicians who don't deserve them.



http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Democrats' promised post-HCR 'bump' becoming a black hole

A Rasmussen poll released Saturday finds 53 percent of voters "now say they trust Republicans on the issue of health care. Thirty-seven percent (37%) place their trust in Democrats. A month earlier, the two parties were essentially even on the health care issue."

Despite proclamations Americans would accept ObamaCare once the president signed it. the 54 percent who want it repealed is virtually unchanged over the two weeks since it was signed into law. Two weeks ago, 50 percent of Americans said the bill was "bad for the country." That figure has now risen to 52 percent.

They go on to report, "the economy remains the top issue of voter concern as it has been for over years. On the economy, Republicans are trusted more by 49 percent while Democrats are preferred by 37 percent. That’s a big improvement for the GOP following a five-point advantage last month."

Meanwhile, a Rasmussen poll released today finds among voters not affiliated with either major political party, 50 percent say their views are closer to the Tea Party while 38 percent side with the President.

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

We need lose only 40 more jobs for recovery to begin

Democrats often say a rising unemployment rate, defined as those in the labor force looking for work, is a sign of Obama's success, as it means people are optimistic and are re-entering the labor force.

Let's assume a rising, or in the current case stagnant, unemployment rate is a sign of faith in Obama's economic prowess.

If you then include those who have given up looking for work or cannot find full-time employment, which would decline if the Democrat theory were true, the nation's unemployment rate increased to 16.9 percent last month, despite what is supposed to be the most robust job growth in three years (inflated with temporary government paychecks.)

And why are White House economists floating stories that unemployment will stay around nine percent, or higher, for a long time?

For one, to lower expectations for a president whose done a wonderful job of that anyway.

And second, to prepare people for the spike in unemployment that will follow the massive increase in costs to employers posed by ObamaCare, forcing them to lay off even more workers or delay hiring to make up the costs.

And that's before you get to the billions of dollars heaped on employers in even more taxes should Obama succeed in ramming his national carbon tax program down the throats of an unwilling American people.

Recovery will come, as it always has. The question is when, and to what extent it should have occurred already.

The employment situation is bleak and recovery that should have occurred months ago will be delayed further because of White House policies bent on punishing employment activity.

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Still more bad news for Democrats...

* Rasmussen finds 49 percent of Americans think Obama's plan to give the federal government total control over student loan programs is a bad idea. Among independents, 49 percent say it's a bad idea. Only 37 percent like the idea. Again, 49 percent of independents also believe Obama's claim it will save money is false.

Even among those with loans or with a family member with a loan, more think it's a bad idea than a good idea.

* USA Today/Gallup, which traditionally leans Democrat, finds 50 percent of Americans say Obama does not deserve reelection, with 46 percent saying otherwise.

* "The poll shows that 26 percent of 1,033 adults polled nationwide said Obama deserves a “great deal” of blame for the nation’s economic problems, double the percentage that said the same last summer..."

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

More bad news for Democrats

Independents not only are more likely to blame Democrats for the post-health care vote vandalism and threats, a vast majority believe Democrats abused their power to pass the unwanted bill. According to a new Gallup released a new poll today:

* When asked whom they think was a "major reason" for "post-health care vote threats and vandalism," more independent voters blamed Democrats (50 percent) than conservative commentators (44 percent) or Republicans (40 percent.)

* An amazing 58 percent of independent voters say Democrat actions in passing the health care bill constitute an "abuse of power."

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Will the Obama presidency be retired by Florida?

Nate Silver, one of the sharper liberal bloggers and statisticians, finds for Obama to win re-election in 2012 he may likely have to find a way to come up with 270 electoral votes without Florida.

Obama won Florida with only 50.92 percent, but polls shows massive opposition to his health care plan and Israel policy may place the state all but off-limits.

That's significant because the 2012 election will be decided by an Electoral College reshaped by the 2010 Census. Many states Obama lost, like Texas, will be gaining representation in the College, while Obama's stronghold of the Northeast and Midwest will lose representation.

Obama won the 2008 election with 365 electoral votes to McCain's 173. But based on Clark Benson's projected 2012 Electoral College Obama would have won 360 votes, five fewer as voters flee Democrat-dominated states.

Five votes may not sound like much, but that was the difference between George W. Bush and Al Gore in 2004.

And with Florida projected to gain a 28th vote, losing that state means Obama starts with 33 electoral votes off the map. A swing of 33 electoral votes would not only have handed Gore an easy win, it would have also almost exactly flipped the 2004 election and given the presidency to John Kerry.

And that likely flip of 33 electoral votes to the Republican in 2012 is nothing more than already-occurred population changes and a switch of as little as 1.4 percent of Florida voters. Heavy opposition to Obama policies is all but certain to chop more Electoral College votes off Obama's 2008 total.

Also losing Virginia, Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, all swing or traditionally Republican states, would likely hand the presidency to a Republican. And that's assuming Obama wins swing states like Colorado and Ohio. By losing Florida, Obama could keep states like Virginia and a large swing state like Ohio and still lose the presidency.

With more of the College's 538 seats going to Republican-dominated states, it's critical Obama hold on to Florida, but ObamaCare and his Israel policy are making a 2012 reelection a tougher undertaing.

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Straightening the Post's skewed health care polling

In today's Washington Examiner, Byron York had the same question I did about The Washington Post's Sunday poll claiming Americans were "split" over ObamaCare instead of opposed -- why didn't the Post reveal how independents felt?

York finally got the partisan breakdowns from poll director Jon Cohen and they reveal independents bitterly oppose ObamaCare and believe Obama is lying on virtually every claim he made.

York didn't address the other problem with the poll -- how they deflated opposition by undersampling Republicans by a whopping eight percent.

The Post's sample was of 1,000 adults was composed of 34 percent Democrats, 24 percent Republicans and 38 percent independents (with four percent saying "other" or "don't know.") That conflicts sharply with current partisan identification trends, which put the country at 35.1 percent Democratic (and falling,) 32.1 percent Republican and 32.9 percent unaffiliated.

The Post undersampled Republicans by eight percent. Making up for it by oversampling Democrats would be blatant bias, but filling that gap in with independents is harder for some to spot.

Now, York writes, "On the support-or-oppose question, 82 percent of Republicans oppose the new law (73 percent strongly), while 76 percent of Democrats support it (56 percent strongly). Among independents, 56 percent oppose the new law (44 percent strongly), while 40 percent support it (26 percent strongly)."

While York gave full numbers for independents, but did not provide Republicans in support or Democrats opposed, an estimated breakdown of the Post's sample goes like this.

Democrats: 258.4 support, 81.6 oppose
Republicans: 43.2 support, 196.8 oppose
Independents: 152.0 support, 491.2 oppose

That comes out to 453.6 support (45.4 percent) and 491.2 oppose (49.1 percent.) Almost exactly the Post's final numbers.

So let's take the Post's numbers and figure out what the real number is when you use an accurate universe, and not the Post's light-on-Republicans universe.

Assuming support and opposition numbers aren't skewed to favor Obama, as the Post's sample is, by applying the Post's by-partisan-ID numbers to a partisan-accurate universe of voters you find:

Democrats: 266.76 support, 84.24 oppose
Republicans: 57.78 support, 263.22 oppose
Independents: 131.6 support, 184.24 oppose

That comes out to 456.1 support (45.6 percent) and 531.7 oppose (53.2 percent.)

So had the Post not undersampled Republicans, but used real numbers, the story would have been that 53 percent of Americans oppose ObamaCare, not the supposed "46 percent to 50 percent 'split'" the Post claims.

That 53 percent to 46 percent margin being, of course, the same margin of victory Obama got when the Post reported he won a "landslide" in 2008.

That's more on par with virtually all other polls, and an indicator of just how skewed the Washington Post's polls are.

Not a 50 percent to 46 percent "split," but a healthy 53 percent to 46 percent margin against. Or as the Post puts it, a "landslide."

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Who are the "angry mob" Democrats fear? Women.

A Quinnipiac University national poll measuring the effect of a hypothetical Tea Party candidate in congressional races uncovered a rather interesting statistic.

You know that "angry," "radical," "right wing" Tea Party "mob" of fabled Democrat lore?

Fifty-five percent of them are women.

I had never seen a gender breakdown of the Tea Party movement before, so I was skeptical. But all other statistics are in line with previous surveys. Eighty-eight percent are white, 74 percent Republican and 72 percent have a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin, all of which match previous polls by other institutions and firms.

Other interesting Quinnipiac findings:

* After a year of leading the "generic ballot" by anywhere from seven to ten points, after passage of ObamaCare Democrats now trail by five.
* Forty-two percent of voters view the Republican Party unfavorable, but forty-eight percent view the Democratic Party unfavorably.
* Among independents, 42 percent view Republicans unfavorably, but 55 percent view the Democratic Party unfavorably.
* By a 43 to 39 percent margin, women plan to vote for the Republican candidate for Congress in their district.
* Fifty-nine percent of independents and fifty-one percent of women say government is now doing "too much."
* While only 10 percent of Democrats "hardly ever" "trust the government in Washington to do what is right," 40 percent of both independents and Republicans say so.
* Only 57 percent of Democrats follow current events "most of the time," compared to 70 percent of Republicans and 64 percent of independents.

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

Do Democrats still want to talk about "inciting violence?"

The United States Attorney's office in Philadelphia announced Monday "a two-count complaint and warrant was filed charging Norman Leboon with threatening to kill United States Congressman Eric Cantor and his family."

In a video posted on YouTube, Leboon warned Cantor "…you receive my bullets in your office, remember they will be placed in your heads."

With Democrats screaming and wailing that Republicans are using super-secret "code words" to supposedly incite people to "hate and violence," why is Leboon's arrest especially notable?

1) Leboon is from Philadelphia, where Obama egged on Democrats to back his 2008 campaign against Republicans with the cry "If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun. Because from what I understand, folks in Philly like a good brawl."

2) Just a week Obama told Democrats to "bring a gun" to "fight" Republicans, Leboon donated $505 to Obama on June 20 and 21.

3) Days after Cantor leads the fight against ObamaCare and holds a press conference on threats he has received Leboon apparently takes Obama's words to heart, posting a video on YouTube telling Cantor, his wife and his children "you receive my bullets in your office, remember they will be placed in your heads."

Obviously, the only person responsible for a death threat is the person who makes it.

But if Chris Matthews is so insistent Republicans are "criminally responsible" for nasty words, is Obama "criminally responsible" for someone threatening to shoot a Republican after he visited his city and told him to "bring a gun?"

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

"A Congressman Who's Nuts"

When asked in a radio interview if he had gotten any nasty phone calls over health care, insane Florida Congressman Alan Grayson claims a woman called his home and said "If you vote for health care, I'll kill you"...to his five year old son. No, really. He said A) he got a death threat...from a woman, B) the threat was the kind you come up with if you need a story, and C) since every liberal fantasy involves harm to children, his five-year-old son got the call.

He didn't save the message or call the police and somehow the media-loving, attention-starved Grayson never mentioned it until asked if he had a story about threats.

He then claims Republicans who say they were threatened are lying and only got the idea from Adolf Hitler. He's currently wanted on charges of violating Godwin's Law.

This is the same Democrat who claimed Republicans had a secret plan to kill off the poor, that he had poll numbers showing he would beat every Republican candidate in the *Republican primary* and demanded Attorney General Eric Holder arrest a Florida woman and imprison her for five years for creating an anti-Grayson website.

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com

ObamaCare includes automatic tax on worker paychecks, of as much as over $2K a year

Why did Democrats hide the text of the ObamaCare bill until just before the vote?

Because they slipped in stuff like this, an automatic tax on your paycheck of as much as $240 a month to fund a new government insurance program.

No wonder Obama made sure most of the bill's provisions don't kick in until after he's out of office.

Little-Known Health Care Law Provision Is a Budget Buster, Critics Say
By William La Jeunesse, FOXNews.com

While Congress spent the last year debating how to provide health insurance for the uninsured, a little-known provision slipped into the heath care law that could cost some Americans upwards of $2,000 a year.

The Class Act, otherwise known as the Community Living Assistance Services and Support Act, is the federal government's first long-term care insurance program.

Under-reported and the under the radar of most lawmakers, the program will allow workers to have an average of roughly $150 or $240 a month, based on age and salary, automatically deducted from their paycheck to save for long-term care...

...Opponents say the provision is little more than a short-term revenue fix that will eventually add to the federal deficit.

"This is a scary proposition where the government passed a huge new entitlement program with gimmicks and tricks and the American people don't know they will be automatically enrolled in it by their employer if they don’t watch out," said Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA).

Nunes says Republicans were blindsided by the provision because they were unable to see the final bill until the very end.

More health care hysteria: Media claim Republicans employing 30-story giants to attack Democrats.

A hysterical Seattle Times story on the supposed "violence" aimed at those who voted for eliminating private health insurance claims "a rock was thrown through the window of (Democrat Congressman Steve) Driehaus' Cincinnati office Sunday."

Glenn Reynolds and Gateway Blog point out his office is on the 30th floor of a downtown skyscraper.

The eeevil Republican would need to be able to throw the rock into the sky the length of one and half football fields.

A sobbing Nancy Pelosi released this sketch of the attacker.



Yet another "they're threatening us" story exposed as a poorly-slapped-together lie.

http://DonnyFerguson.blogspot.com